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Reconocimiento Optico de Caracteres (OCR)
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Case Number: 20000 0044
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ARGENTINA PROJECT (S200000W4)
US. DEPT OFSIXTE, A/RPS/IPS
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() Release (V)Exdse { )Dejv
SECTION 1 OF 5 BUENOS AIRES 5281 Excmptionfo):. J/L "f
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INFO
R 181751Z JUL 77
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1383
E.O. 11652: GDS
TAGS: PINS, PINT, SHUM, ELAB, AR
SUBJECT: VIDELA CALLS FOR A POLITICAL DIALOGUE
Re
SUMMARY: PRESIDENT VIDELA'S CALL FOR A NATIONAL DIALOGUE
WITH CIVILIAN POLITICAL SECTORS IS SEEN BY MANY ARGENTINE
POLITICAL OBSERVERS AS A SIGN THAT THE STRUGGLE FOR POWER
BETWEEN DEMOCRATIC AND AUTHORITARIAN TENDENCIES IN THE
ARMY IS BEING WON BY THE MODERATE MILITARY FACTION HEADED
BY VIDELA. THERE IS VIRTUAL UNANIMITY IN THE ARMED FORCES
THAT BASIC INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS ARE NECESSARY IF ARGENTINA
IS TO BREAK ITS SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF MILITARY TAKEOVERS
REQUIRED TO UNDO THE CHAOS LEFT BY WEAK AND INEFFECTUAL
CIVILIAN GOVERNMENTS. HOWEVER, THE ISSUES CURRENTLY DIVIDING
THE ARMY APPEAR TO INCLUDE THE PERIOD OF TIME NECESSARY TO
PREPARE THE GROUND FOR A RETURN TO STABLE" CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT,
THE POLITICAL GROUP OR GROUPS WITH WHOM THE MILITARY
SHOULD "DIALOGUE" CONCERNING THE FUTURE, AND THE STRUCTURE OR SHAPE
WHICH THE FUTURE CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE IN
ORDER TO ASSURE THE STABILITY DESIRED. THE VIDELA-VILOA FORCES
APPEAR TO FAVOR NEGOTIATIONS WITH TRADITIONAL PERONIST AND
RADICAL PARTY POLITICIANS AND A SHORTER TRANSITION PERIOD,
WHEREAS AUTHORITARIAN AND RIGHTWING MILITARY MEN SEEM TO BE
THINKING IN TERMS OF A MORE RADICAL REFORM OF THE POLITICAL
>ﾃつ｣*
/
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"SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD REQUIRE MORE TIME. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
ROUGH CORRELATION BETWEEN THE DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES
IN THAT THE MODERATES FAVORING A POLITICAL DIALOGUE TEND TO BE
MORE SENSITIVE TO THE HUMAN RIGHTS PROBLEM (AT LEAST FROM THE
PUBLIC RELATIONS STANDPOINT), WHEREAS THE AUTHORITARIANS TEND TO
BE MORE HARDLINE ON BOTH ISSUES. HOWEVER, THIS IS AN OVERSIMPLI-
FICATION. TRADITIONAL INSTITUTIONAL RIVALRIES WITHIN THE ARMED
FORCES AND PERSONAL AMBITIONS OFTEN SUPERSEDE THE IDEOLOGICAL
OR POLICY DIFFERENCES AND CONFUSE THE ISSUES. DESPITE VIDELA'S
RECENT GAINS IN THE ARMY, HE IS A LONG WAY FROM WINNING THE
STRUGGLE. THE DIALOGUE HAS NOT YET BEEN FORMALLY APPROVED IN
THE ARMY AND MOREOVER THE ARMY HARDLINERS APPEAR TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT WITHIN THE NAVY AND THE AIR FORCE. THE
LATTER TWO SERVICES ARE PUTTING PRESSURE ON VIDELA TO RELINQUISH
HIS COMMAND OF THE ARMY AND STEP DOWN FROM THE JUNTA WHILE
REMAINING AS PRESIDENT, I.E. TO BECOME THE -FOURTH MAN." AN
IMPORTANT INDICATOR OF THE OUTCOME OF THE IMMEDIATE
STRUGGLE IS WHETHER VIDELA WILL BE ABLE TO
RETIRE EXTREME HARDLINE GENERALS WHO OPPOSE HIS PLANS.
THIS PAPER IS AN INITIAL ATTEMPT TO GET AT THE ISSUES INVOLVED
IN "THE DIALOGUE" AND THE CONCLUSIONS CONTAINED HEREIN SHOULD BE
REGARDED AS TENTATIVE. END SUMMARY.
1. THE UNLEASHING OF THE GRAIVER AND THE ALUAR SCANDALS BY
RIGHTWING MILITARY HARDLINERS IN APRIL AND MAY HAS PROVEN TO REP-
RESENT NO MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION IN PRESIDENT
VIDELA'S ATTEMPT TO CONSOLIDATE HIS POSITION WITHIN THE MILITARY
REGIME AND USE THIS POSITION TO BRING ABOUT THE POLITICAL REFORMS
HE IS SEEKING. VIDELA WON MAJOR GAINS DURING THE MEETING OF ARMY
GENERALS IN FEBRUARY AND, AS THE COUP MARKED ITS FIRST ANNIVERSARY
IN MARCH, THE GOVERNMENT APPEARED TO OBTAIN A NEW DEGREE OF
STABILITY. THEN CAME THE CHALLENGE FROM PROVINCIAL GOVERNOR
SAINT JEAN (PREVIOUSLY RUMORED AS AN ASPIRANT TO THE "4TH MAN"
BUENOS 05281 01 OF 05 1821232
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POSITION) IN THE FORM OF THE GRAIVER-ALUAR CRISES. HAVING
DISSIPATED THE MOST FRIGHTENING ASPECTS OF THESE POLITICAL STORM
CLOUDS (BY REMANDING THE ISSUES INVOLVED TO THE CIVIL AND
MILITARY JUDICIAL SYSTEMS), VIDELA RECOVERED SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TO MAKE A FRESH START TOWARD INITIATING THE PROCESS
OF POLITICAL REFORM.
2. IN HIS ARMY DAY SPEECH OF MAY 2 9 VIDELA ANNOUNCED THAT PLANS
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WERE UNDERWAY TO INSTITUTIONALIZE A "WIDE AND GENEROUS DIALOGUE"
WITH ALL SECTORS OF PUBLIC OPINION "EXCEPT THE CORRUPT AND
SUBVERSIVES." SUCH A CIVIL-MILITARY DIALOGUE, SAID VIDELA,
WOULD PREVENT THE ARMED FORCES, IN THE SOLITUDE OF THEIR POWER,
FROM FALLING INTO ELITIST OR CORPORATIVIST HABITS; THE END
OBJECTIVE WAS TO BUILD "AN EFFICIENT AND STABLE DEMOCRACY."
THERE WAS ANOTHER EQUALLY IMPORTANT DIMENSION TO THE SPEECH:
HIS CALL TO BEGIN "WINNING THE PEACE" AFTER THE WAR AGAINST
SUBVERSION WAS WON CARRIED WITH IT THE IMPLICIT PROMISE OF
GREATER OBSERVANCE OF LEGALITY AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE FUTURE.
3. VIDELA THEN REPAIRED TO A KEY MEETING OF ARMY GENERALS
MAY 31-JUNE 1, IN WHICH IT IS SAID THAT ALL THE GENERALS PRESENT,
EXCEPT TWO, ACCEPTED HIS PROPOSAL TO.INCLUDE POLITICIANS IN THE
DIALOGUE. ACCORDING TO A CASA ROSADA SOURCE, IT WAS AGREED
THAT DETAILED PLANS FOR A NATIONAL DIALOGUE WOULD BE DRAWN UP
AND PRESENTED AT THE NEXT REGULAR MEETING OF ALL THE GENERALS
SCHEDULED FOR AUGUST. AMONG THE DETAILS PENDING CLARIFICATION
ARE THE AGENDA TO BE DISCUSSED, WITH WHOM, WITH WHAT OBJECTIVE
AND OVER WHAT PERIOD. REPORTEDLY, THOSE HIGH RANKING OFFICERS
WHO CANNOT ACCEPT THE PRESIDENT'S PLAN FOR A POLITICAL DIALOGUE
WILL BE EXPECTED TO RESIGN--OR THEY WILL BE RETIRED. FOR THIS
PURPOSE, ARMY PROMOTION AND ASSIGNMENT PANELS WILL MEET EARLIER
THIS YEAR. (FOLLOWING THE GENERALS' CONCLAVE RUMORS
BEGAN CIRCULATING THAT ARMY I CORPS COMMANDER GENERAL SUAREZ
MASON, A PRINCIPAL HARDLINER, WOULD BE REASSIGNED OR RETIRED
AT THE END OF THE YEAR AND THAT SAINT JEAN WOULD BE REMOVED
FROM THE BUENOS AIRES GOVERNORSHIP).
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R 181751Z JUL 77
fm amembassy buenos aires
to secstate washdc 1384
Ejection 2 of 5 buenos aires 5281
4. in an apparently separate endeavor in early june, planning
minister (gen.) diaz bessone presented to the junta a draft
introduction to a "national project" or plan for overhauling
the nation's political institutions and preparing the way for a
new constitutional republic. although our palace source viewed
"diaz bessone's draft as a separate initiative intended to upstage
the president, the preliminary working paper subsequently was
examined extensively at various levels of the national
government and the armed forces and presumably will provide the
frame of reference for "the dialogue" with civilian sectors
whenever one gets formally underway. indeed, videla's recent
speeches have been interpreted in the press as meaning that
government reorganization plans are now conceived as resting on
two pillars--the national project and the dialogue. however, it
is apparent that there are important differences between the two
PLANS.
5. PARALLELING THE PLANS FOR A "NATIONAL DIALOGUE," IT IS ALSO
RELEVANT TO NOTE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GREATER RECOGNITION OF
THE HUMAN RIGHTS PROBLEM IN VIDELA'S PUBLIC PRONOUNCEMENTS OVER
THE PAST TWO MONTHS. AS THE WAR AGAINST SUBVERSION WINDS DOWN,
VIDELA HAS BEEN QUOTED AS SAYING, THE ABUSES WILL ALSO
DISAPPEAR. IN AN ATTEMPT TO AVERT A NEGATIVE U.S. VOTE IN THE
WORLD BANK, GOVERNMENT REPRESENTATIVES APPEARED TO BECOME MORE
PAGE 02 BUENOS 05281 02 OF 05 182134Z
RESPONSIVE TO OUR DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVES. ON THE LABOR FRONT
THERE ALSO HAS BEEN AN ALBEIT BRIEF CONTRIBUTION TO THE DIALOGUE
AS THE GOVERNMENT CONSULTED A GROUP OF HANDPICKED LABOR LEADERS
CONCERNING THE GUIDELINES FOR A NEW TRADE UNION LAW RECENTLY
APPROVED IN PRINCIPLE BY THE JUNTA.
6. VIDELA'S RECENT INITIATIVES HAVE PRODUCED A FLURRY OF QUASI-
POLITICAL ACTIVITY AROUND THE COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT, EVERY CONTACT
BETWEEN A LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL AND A CITIZENS GROUP, EVERY
PRONOUNCEMENT BY A PRESSURE GROUP WAS SEEN AS PART OF THE NEW
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ﾃつｦDIALOGUE, THANKS IN PART TO THE MORNING DAILY "LA OPINION"
WHICH, INTERVENED BY MODERATE (SOMETIMES ALSO REFERRED TO AS
"POPULIST") MILITARY AUTHORITIES ANSWERABLE TO ARMY CHIEF OF
STATE VIOLA, UNDERTOOK THE TASK UNOFFICIALLY--AND PERHAPS
PREMATURELY--OF PROPAGATING THE NEW PHILOSOPHY. DESPITE THE
BAN ON POLITICAL PARTY ACTIVITY, UCRP LEADERS ISSUED A STATEMENT
CRITICIZING VARIOUS ASPECTS OF GOVERNMENT POLICY; PERONISTS
ANNOUNCED THE OPENING OF A STUDY CENTER; A CONSERVATIVE STUDY
AND ACTION GROUP CALLED "SEA" RELEASED A DOCUMENT SETTING FORTH
ITS OBJECTIVES; CONSERVATIVE MINIPARTIES ANNOUNCED AN ATTEMPT
AT'UNIFICATION; AND A NEW SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC SPLINTER GROUP CAME
INTO BEING. RESPONDING TO THE GENERALLY FREER AIR,"SOME 3,000
PERONISTS ALSO STAGED A BRIEF STREET DEMONSTRATION ON THE
ANNIVERSARY OF PERON'S DEATH BEFORE BEING DISPERSED BY POLICE.
ON THE LABOR FRONT THE TRADE UNION COMMITTEE CONSULTED BY THE
GOVERNMENT WITH RESPECT TO A NEW UNION LAW STATED ITS PREFERENCE
FOR RETAINING THE PERONIST LABOR LEGISLATION. THE INTERVENED
AUTO WORKERS AND LIGHT AND POWER WORKERS UNIONS ALSO ISSUED
STATEMENTS COMDEMNING THE GOVERNMENT'S LABOR POLICIES.
7. AS TO BE EXPECTED, THE VIDELA ADMINISTRATION VIEWED SOME OF
THESE DEVELOPMENTS AS GOING TOO FAR TOO FAST AND IT REACTED WITH
IRRITATION. THE RADICAL PARTY STATEMENT PUBLISHED TWO
BUENOS 05281 02 OF 05 182134Z
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AFTER THE MEETING OF THE ARMY GENERALS WAS PARTICULARLY UPSETTING
FOR THE GOVERNMENT NOT ONLY BECAUSE OF ITS TRONG CRITICISM OF
HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES AND MARTINEZ DE HOZ' ECONOMIC POLICY BUT
ALSO DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE DOCUMENT'S-"RELEASE. VIDELA AIDES
WERE FEARFUL IT WOULD ALARM THE HARDLINE GENERALS AND STRENGTHEN
THEIR RESOLVE TO RESIST THE PRESIDENT'S PLANS. ACCORDING TO OUR
PALACE SOURCE, THE PRESIDENT HAD A CAREFULLY DELINEATED GAME
PLAN FOR BRINING THE ARMED FORCES AROUND TO HIS POINT OF VIEW.
HE COULD NOT HAVE WON THE GENERALS' APPROVAL OF A POLITICAL
DIALOGUE IN FEBRUARY, FOR EXAMPLE. THE RADICAL STATEMENT COULD
HAVE UNDONE VIDELA'S SCENARIO, IT WAS ARGUED. IN ORDER TO CALM
THE GENERALS, VIDELA AGAIN RESORTED TO THE COURT SYSTEM TO
DETERMINE WHETHER THE BAN ON POLITICAL ACTIVITY HAD BEEN VIOLATED.
HOWEVER, BY SELECTING A FEDERAL JUDGE OF KNOWN "DEMOCRATIC
PERSUASION,n IT WAS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION THAT THE CASE AGAINST
THE RADICALS WOULD DIE A NATURAL DEATH. (INDEED, A NOT-GUILTY
VERDICT WAS HANDED DOWN A WEEK AGO, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ELEMENTS
IN THE GOVERNMENT WHICH STILL APPEAR DETERMINED TO CONTEST THE
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DECISION AND THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR IN FACT FILED AN APPEAL.)
8. IF THE GOVERNMENT HAD REASON TO BE DISPLEASED WITH THE
CRITICAL TONE OF THE COMMENTS FROM TRADITIONAL POLITICAL PARTY
AND TRADE UNION QUARTERS WHICH VIDELA'S CALL FOR A DIALOGUE HAD
EVOKED, THE CREATIVE IMAGINATION OF AUTHORITARIAN OR CENTER-
RIGHT CIVILIAN ELEMENTS WAS NO LESS DISTRUBING. IN HIS N.Y.
STATEMENT, EX-JUSTICE MINISTER AND "SEA" FOUNDING MEMBER JAIME
PERIAUX NOT ONLY PREDICTED THAT THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT WOULD
LAST 10 TO 12 YEAR. HE RESURRECTED THE "4TH MAN" THESIS BY
REPORTEDLY ANNOUNCING THAT VIDELA PLANNED TO REMAIN AS PRESIDENT,
ALTHOUGH STEPPING DOWN FROM THE JUNTA AND RETIRING FROM THE
ARMY IN 1979. VIDELA WOULD DO BETTER, SUGGESTED PERRIAUX, IF HE
ALSO GAVE UP THE PRESIDENCY IN 1979 AND HELD HIMSELF "IN RESERVE"
SO THAT HE COULD LAUNCH HIS CANDIDACY AS THE FIRST CIVILIAN
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R 181751Z JUL 77
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1385
'SECTION 3 OF 5 BUENOS AIRES 5281
PRESIDENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD OF MILITARY RULE. PERRIAUX
WAS IMMEDIATELY POUNCED ON BY OLD-LINE POLITICANS FOR HINTING
THAT THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD SEEK TO INCORPORATE ALL CENTER AND
CENTER-RIGHT OPINION IN A SINGLE OFFICIAL PARTY TO FILL A ROLE
SIMILAR TO THAT PLAYED BY THE PRI IN MEXICO. THIS IDEA HAD
FIRST BEEN INTRODUCED BY "CARTA POLITICA'S" MARIANO GRONDONA
BACK IN APRIL WHEN HE SUGGESTED THE CREATION OF A NATIONAL
REORGANIZATION MOVEMENT ("MRN") WHICH, AS ONE ASTUTE POLITICAL
OBSERVER CALLED IT, WAS NOT INTENDED "TO-WIN ELECTIONS FIRST
AND THEN GOVERN BUT TO GOVERN FIRST AND WIN ELECTIONS AFTERWARDS.
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'9. GRONDONA'S THESIS WAS DEVELOPED FURTHER IN THE JUNE 23
ISSUE OF THE FORTNIGHTLY MAGAZINE "CONVICCION," WHICH ALSO
CONTAINED A DETAILED PLAN FOR GRADUALLY PREPARING THE COUNTRY
FOR CIVILIAN RULE OVER THE NEXT 13 YEARS. BECAUSE THIS IS THE
MOST ELABORATE STATEMENT OF AUTHORITARIAN (BUT NOT NECESSARILY
ANTI-VIDELA) THINKING ABOUT THE POLITICAL FUTURE WHICH HAS
APPEARED TO DATE, IT DESERVES SUMMARIZATION HERE. (SOME SAY IT
WAS INSPIRED BY THE NAVY, HOWEVER, SEE HAB 8586 FOR THE OUTLINE
OF A PLAN PREPARED BY AUTHORITARIAN GEN. OLIVERA ROVERE, THE
ARMY'S SECREATRY GENERAL, WHICH BEARS SOME RESEMBLANCE.) THE
"CONVICCION" ARTICLE FORESEES A FIVE-STAGE SCENARIO AS FOLLOWS:
(A) 1976-1979. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST STAGE,
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CHARACTERIZED AS ONE OF "MILITARY ABSOLUTISM," THE CURRENT
GOVERNING STRUCTURE REMAINS IN FORCE, I.E. NO CHANGE IN THE
MILITARY JUNTA OR THE PRESIDENCY. TOWARDS THE END OF 1978 THE
NUCLEUS OF THE MRN IS TO BE FORMED.
(B) 1979-1982, A NEW MILITARY JUNTA IS TO BE INSTALLED IN
1979, BUT VIDELA REMAINS AS PRESIDENT, I.E. AS "THE 4TH MAN."
ADMIRAL MASSERA DND GENERAL AGOSTI, ALREADY RETIRED, , BECOME
LEADERS IN THE MRN. SOME PARTICIPATION OF CIVILIAN ELEMENTS
TO BE ALLOWED IN THE GOVERNMENT, PRESUMABLY SELECTED FROM THE
MRN.
(C) 1982-1985. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTALLATION OF A NEW
JUNTA IN 1982, VIDELA MUST STEP DOWN FOR ANOTHER MILITARY MAN
FROM THE MRN LEADERSHIP WHO WILL BE PRESIDENT UNTIL 1988. THE
PROVINCIAL GOVERNORS WOULD ALSO HAVE TO COME FROM THE MILITARY,
(D) 1985-1988. THE JUNTA CHANGES AGAIN, BUT THE PRESIDENT
SELECTED IN 1982 REMAINS, HIS PRINCIPAL TASK BEING TO ORGANIZE
A REFERENDUM (TO TAKE PLACE IN 1986) REGARDING THE
INSTITUTIONALIZATION PROCESS. MAYORS AND CITY COUNCILMEN WOULD
BE ELECTED IN 1987 AND PROVINCIAL LEGISLATORS IN 198 8 FROM
LISTS DRAWN UP REPRESENTING VARIOUS CURRENTS OF OPINION WITHIN
THE MRN.
(E) 1988-1991. ANOTHER JUNTA IS INSTALLED, HOPEFULLY THE
LAST IN THE REORGANIZATION PROCESS. THE NEW PRESIDENT WOULD
COME FROM THE MRN, BUT HE COULD BE A CIVILIAN. IN 1989 THE MRN
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WOULD BE DISSOLVED TO ALLOW ITS MEMBERS TO REGROUP IN ONE OR
MORE NEW POLITICAL PARTIES. POSSIBLY, IT WOULD BE SPLIT INTO
TWO, LIKE AN AMOEBA, TO FORM THE START OF A TWO-PARTY SYSTEM.
ELECTIONS FOR MEMBERS TO THE NATIONAL CONGRESS WOULD BE HELD IN
1990. BY 1991, THE AUTHORS OF THIS POLITICAL SCENARIO HOPE THE
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MILITARY WILL HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WITHDRAW QUITELY AND SLOWLY TO
THE SIDELINES, LEAVING THE CIVILIANS PRESUMABLY FREE TO CALL
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND TO RUN THE NEW GOVERNMENT ON THEIR
OWN.
10. AT HIS PRESS CONFERENCE IN MONTEVIDEO JUNE 24 VIDELA
APPEARED TO BE REACTING NOT ONLY THE THE TRIAL BALLOONS LAUNCHED
FROM AUTHORITARIAN QUARTERS, BUT ALSO TO BE RETREATING FROM THE
EXCESSIVE EXPECTATIONS AROUNDES IN PERONIST AND RADICAL POLITICAL
SECTORS BY HIS CALL FOR DIALOGUE. SAID VIDELA, THE PURPOSE OF
THE PROPOSED DIALOGUE WITH CIVILIAN REPRESENTATIVES WAS TO
ENRICH THE IDEAS OF THE ARMED FORCES AS THEY-WORKED TOWARD THE
COMMON OBJECTIVE OF BUILDING A "STRONG, STABLE AND MODERN
DEMOCRACY." A "CIVILIAN-MILITARY CONVERGENCE," HOWEVER, DID NOT
MEAN THAT THE ARMED FORCES SHOULD FATHER THEIR OWN POLITICAL
PARTY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE DIALOGUE EXCLUDED NOT
ONLY SUBVERSIVES, ECONOMIC DELINQUENTS AND THE CORRUPT, BUT
ALSO "THOSE WHO EXCLUDED THEMSELVES BECAUSE THEY DO NOT SHARE
OUR IDEAS." HE GRUDGINGLY ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE PROPOSED
DIALOGUE COULD BE CALLED "A POLITICAL OPENING," BUT NOT IN AN
ELECTORAL SENSE. "WE ARE FAR FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF ELECTIONS,
WHETHER MUNICIPAL, PROVINCIAL OR NATIONAL"" HE SAID. IN
RESPONSE TO A QUESTION, VIDELA DISCLAIMED CURRENT CONSIDERATION
OF A "4TH MAN" THESIS, SEEING NO NEED TO CHANGE THE EXISTING
POWER STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, HE HEDGED, SHOULD CIRCUMSTANCES
DURING THE REORGANIZATION PROCESS SO REQUIRE, HE WOULD NOT
RULE OUT NEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING A 4TH MAN IDEA.
11. THERE HAVE BEEN OTHER INCIDENTS OF STATEMENTS ON THE
RECORD WHICH FURTHER SUGGEST THE PARAMETERS OF, OR CONSTRAINTS
ON, VIDELA'S CALL FOR DIALOGUE:
-- IT IS RUMORED IN POLITICAL CIRCLES THAT AT A RECENT MEETING
OF SENIOR ARMY OFFICERS ARCH-HARDLINER GENERAL SANTIAGO OMAR
RIVEROS OPENLY CHALLENGED PRESIDENT VIDELA'S PLANS, ONLY TO BE
ARGUED DOWN BY III CORPS COMMANDER GENERAL MENENDEZ, A
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HARDLINER WHO REPORTEDLY HAS MOVED INTO VIDELA'S CAMP. THESE
REPORTS DO NOT MAKE CLEAR AT WHICH RECENT MEETING THE ALLEGED
ENCOUNTER TOOK PLACE, BUT SEE HAB-8606 FOR A DETAILED REPORT
OF AN INCIDENT AT A MEETING OF THE ARMY HIGH COMMAND ON JUNE 3 0
WHICH SOUNDS AS IF IT MAY BE THE SAME EVENT. (MENENDEZ,
INCIDENTALLY, IS INCREASINGLY BEING TOUTED AS A SWINGMAN AND
POTENTIAL ARBITER WITHIN THE ARMY.)
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FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1386
?SECTION 4 OF 5 BUENOS AIRES 5281
-- THE DECISION TO OFFICIALLY HEADQUARTER THE MILITARY JUNTA
AT THE NATIONAL CONGRESS BUILDING LENDS THE IMPRESSION OF
UPGRADING THE JUNTA VIS-A-VIS THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY. IT
PARALLELED' A RECENT DECREE PLACING LIMITS ON THE AMOUNT OF TIME
THE EXECUTIVE POWER COULD HOLD UP LEGISLATION PROPOSED BY THE
JUNTA'S LEGISLATIVE ADVISORY COMMISSION (CAL).
-- THE APPOINTMENT OF A PROTEGE OF PERRIAUX, DR. JUAN JOSE
CATALAN, AS MINISTER OF EDUCATION AND CULTURE, GAVE THE IMPRESSION,
PERHAPS ERRONEOUSLY, THAT VIDELA HAD MADE A CONCESSION TO THE
CONSERVATIVE "SEA" GROUP.
--ON THE SAME DAY THAT VIDELA ADMITTED IN MONTEVIDEO THAT THE
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ﾃつｦDIALOGUE COULD BE INTERPRETED AS A LIMITED "POLITICAL OPENING,"
INTERIOR MINISTER HARGUINDEGUY EXPRESSLY REJECTED THIS
DEFINITION.
-- TWO WEEKS AGO THE ARMY ISSUED A COMMUNIQUE CALLING FOR
THE AGING POLITICAL PARTY CHIEFS AND THE LEADERS OF OTHER KEY
SECTORS OF SOCIETY TO TURN OVER THEIR LEADERSHIP POSTS TO A
YOUNGER GENERATION AS A CONTRIBUTION TO THE NATIONAL
REORGANIZATION PROCESS.
DESPITE VIDELA'S DISAVOWAL OF THE "4TH MAN" THESIS, RUMORS
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CONTINUE THAT HE MAY STEP DOWN FROM THE JUNTA EARLY NEXT YEAR,
BUT REMAIN IN THE PRESIDENCY. CURIOUSLY, SOME SEE THIS AS A SIGN
OF VIDELA'S GROWING STRENGTH AND THE ASCENDANCE OF THE MODERATE
POSITION IN THE ARMY. ACCORDING TO THE OPTIMISTIC VERSION, VIOLA
WOULD REPLACE VIDELA IN THE JUNTA AS COMMANDER OF THE ARMY.
HOWEVER, WE DOUBT THAT VIDELA WILLINGLY WOULD PERMIT HIMSELF TO
BE SEVERED FROM THE UMBILICAL CORD WHICH TIES HIM TO THE ARMY
COMMAND STRUCTURE WHEN THE MOST LIKELY CONSEQUENCE WOULD BE
HAVING SUCH OPPOSING POLITICAL FIGURES AS "POPULIST" VIOLA AS
ARMY COMMANDER AND JUNTA MEMBER ON THE ONE HAND AND EITHER
HARDLINER SUAREZ MASON OR SUPPOSEDLY EX-HARDLINER MENENDEZ AS
ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF ON THE OTHER. SEE PARAGRAPH 17 BELOW.)
12. THERE HAVE BEEN OTHER INCIDENTS OR MILESTONES MARKING MORE
CLEARCUT POSITIVE GAINS FOR THE VIDELA-VIOLA FORCES IN RECENT
WEEKS: THE APPEALS COURT DECISION RELEASING EX-PRESIDENT
LANUSSE AND FORMER AIDES FROM PREVENTIVE DETENTION (PORBABLY
QUASHING THE CHARGES AGAINST LANUSSE IN THE ALUAR CASE FOR
GOOD}; GOVERNOR SAINT JEAN'S TELLTALE PROTESTATIONS OF HIS
DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN CONVICITIONS TO THE "NEW YORK TIMES";
THE JUDICIAL DECISION ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE MATTER OF THE
UCRP STATEMENT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STIMULATE RENEWED
POLITICAL DEBATE; AND ADMIRAL MASSERA'S SPEECH A WEEK AGO
DECLARING THAT DEMOCRACY WAS BEING REBUILT "EVEN FOR THOSE WHO
TORE DEMOCRACY TO SHREDS."
13. ON BALANCE, WE BELIEVE THAT THE MODERATES OF "POPULISTS"
HAVE MADE IMPORTANT GAINS IN THE ARMY OVER THE PAST MONTH OR SO,
AND THAT THIS WILL ADVANCE THE CHANCES OF THE "DIALOGUE" VIDELA
SEEKS. THE END OBJECTIVE APPEARS TO BE THE CONSTRUCTION OF A
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FEDERALIST, REPUBLICAN AND PLURALIST DEMOCRACY TAILORED TO MEET
THE DISTINCTIVE CHALLENGES OF THE ARGENTINE POLITICAL CULTURE--
PERHAPS THROUGH SOME ADMISSION OF "CORPORATIST" PRINCIPLES. BUT
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OUST WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF VIDELA'S PROPOSED DIALOGUE AND
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS? FIRST OF ALL, IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED
THAT ACCORDING TO ITS OWN PROPONENTS "THE DIALOGUE" HAS NOT YET
FORMALLY BUGEN. IN ORDER FOR THE ARMED FORCES OFFICIALLY TO
APPROVE THE DIALOGUE, THEY MUST FIRST HAVE A CLEARLY DEFINED
POLITICAL REORGANIZATION SCHEME ABOUT WHICH THEY CAN "DIALOGUE"
WITH CIVILIAN SECTORS. OUR READING OF HAB 8597 SUGGESTS THAT
THE ARMY HAS NOT YET DECIDED WHAT FORM THE GOVERNMENT'S
STRUCTURE SHOULD TAKE IN THE MEDIUM TERM, LET ALONE WHAT THE
NEXT CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD LOOK LIKE. THE DRAFT
"NATIONAL PROJECT" WILL NOT BE READY UNTIL NEXT YEAR--IF THEN.
SECONDLY, EVEN ASSUMING THAT VIDELA IS DISPOSED TO INCLUDE
SOME OF THE OLD TIME POLITICIANS IN HIS PROPOSED DIALOGUE
ABOUT THE FUTURE, WE SERIOUSLY DOUBT HE WOULD RESERVE A
PRINCIPAL PLACE IN THE FUTURE CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT HE IS
PLANNING FOR POLITICAL FIGURES INTIMATELY CONNECTED WITH THE
POLITICAL DISASTERS OF THE RECENT PAST.
14. WE TEND TO VIEW VIDELA'S CALL FOR DIALOGUE PRINCIPALLY AS
A PSYCHOLOGICAL DEVICE INTENDED TO CONVINCE THE
ARMED FORCES TO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF PLANNING THE BASES FOR
FUTURE CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT. AFTER ALL, A DILAOGUE OF
SORTS HAS BEEN GOING ON BETWEEN CIVILIANS AND THE MILITARY SINCE
THE COUP--ACTUALLY SINCE BEFORE THE COUP." HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE
THE ALL-IMPORTANT DIALOGUE OF THE FUTURE, I.E. THE NEGOTIATIONS
WITH THE CIVILIAN GROUP EVENTUALLY TO TAKE OVER FROM THE MILITARY
IS A LONG WAY FROM BEING APPROVED BY THE JUNTA, NOTWITHSTANDING
THE FACT THAT THERE ARE RADICALS AND PERONISTS SALIVATING IN THE
WINGS WHO THINK THEY WILL BE INVITED TO JOIN THE CABINET OR
OTHER HIGH LEVEL POSTS AS EARLY AS NEXT YEAR.
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FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1387
SECTION 5 OF 5 BUENOS AIRES 5281
15. THERE COULD BE NEW SETBACKS FOR THE MODERATES' TIMETABLE.
BETWEEN NOW AND THE NEXT MEETING OF ALL THE ARMY GENERALS
SCHEDULED FOR AUGUST, THE HARDLINE GENERALS COULD STRIKE BACK
AGAIN AND THE VIDELA "DIALOGUE" PUT IN THE TRASH BASKET. HAB-
8 606 SUGGESTS THAT VIDELA-VIOLA GROUP HAD CONSIDERABLY ROUGHER
GOING IN THE HIGH COMMAND ("ALTOS MANDOS") MEETING OF JUNE 30
THAN IN THE GENERALS' MEETING A MONTH BEFORE. THE SUPPORT OF
THE GENERALS WHO ARE MEMBERS OF THE 76TH GRADUATION CLASS OF THE
MILITARY ACADEMY IS WHAT APPEARS TO GIVE VIDELA HIS
DECISIVE EDGE IN THE MEETINGS OF GENERALS AS OPPOSED TO THOSE
OF THE HIGH COMMAND.
16. A KEY CONSTRAINT ON THE DIALOGUE IN THE LABOR SECTOR IS
WHETHER MARTINEZ DE HOZ' BECOMINC POLICY WILL PROVE SUCCESSFUL.
UNTIL THERE ARE GREATHER SIGNS OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY IT DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY THAT HE WILL FAVOR COLLECTIVE BARGAINING, LET ALONE
THE RIGHT TO STRIKE, IF HE HAS ANY SAY IN THE MATTER. MOREOVER,
OUTBREAKS OF LABOR OR SOCIAL UNREST COULD PRODUCE DEMANDS FOR
RENEWED AUTHORITARIAN MEASURES. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY CRUCIAL AND
LARGELY UNKNOWN VARIABLE FOR THE MEDIUM TERM COULD BE THE NEW
GENERATION OF YOUNG MILITARY OFFICERS WHO HAVE BORNE THE BRUNT
OF THE COUNTERINSURGENCY AND WHO PRESUMABLY HAVE AN INTEREST IN
PREVENTING FUTURE CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENTS FROM EXAMINING THE
COUNTERTERRORIST METHODS USED TO WIN THE WAR. WHETHER THIS
BUENOS 05281 05 OF 05 182209Z
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ELEMENT WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL ROLE IN THE FUTURE IS
STILL UNCLEAR, BUT SOME OBSERVERS FEAR THAT THERE ARE t?
NATIONALIST AUTHORITARIAN IDEAS STIRRING IN THIS GROUP, j_
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1
17 DESPITE VIDELA'S RECENT GAINS, THERE IS AN ACCOMMODATION
PROCESS AT WORK WITHIN THE ARMED FORCES AND HE PROBABLY WILL
HAVE TO COMPROMISE SOME ON HIS PROGRAM IN ORDER TO
GAIN THE FULL ACQUIESCENCE OF THE MILITARY. NOT THAT WE
SEE HIM WILLINGLY ACCEPTING THE "4TH MAN" THESIS BEFORE 1979
WHEN, BY STATUTE, HE MUST GIVE UP HIS POSITION AS ARMY COMMANDER
ANYWAY. UNLESS THERE IS MORE LOGIC AND DYNAMISM BEHIND THE
PRESSURE FROM ARMY HARDLINERS AND THE OTHER TWO SERVICES FOR NOT
ALLOWING VIDELA TO WEAR HIS JUNTA AND PRESIDENTIAL HATS
SIMULTANEOUSLY THAN PRESENTLY MEETS THE EYE, WE ARE SKEPTICAL
THAT HE IS ABOUT ,TO CONCEDE ON THIS POINT--ESPECIALLY WHEN HIS
POSITION OF STRENGTH WITHIN THE ARMY APPEARS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE. THE AUTHORITARIAN POLITICAL THINKERS HAVE MADE A
CONTRIBUTION TO THE DEBATE (OR DIALOGUE), BY PLACING A 13-YEAR
OUTSIDE LIMIT ON MILITARY RULE. VIDELA PUBLICLY STILL REFUSES
TO BE DRAWN INTO A CONVERSATION OF TIMETABLES, BUT PRESUMABLY
HIS SCENARIO CALLS FOR A SHORTER TRANSITION PERIOD. (CURIOUSLY,
ADMIRAL MASSERA ALSO MAY BE THINKING IN TERMS OF A RELATIVELY.
BRIEFER REORGANIZATION PROCESS (5-6 YEARS WAS THE GUESS OF ONE
OF HIS AIDES), BUT THIS IS PRESUMABLY BECAUSE OF MASSERA'S OWN
PERSONAL POLITICAL AMBITIONS.)
18. ANOTHER APPARENT DISTINCTION IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
CONSERVATIVE/AUTHORITARIAN POLITICAL THINKERS TEND TOWARDS A
BRAZILIAN-LIKE POLITICAL SOLUTION WITH ARTIFICIALLY STRUCTURED
GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION PARTIES, WHEREAS VIDELA'S CIVILIAN
AIDES CARTER MORE TO THE TRADITIONAL PARTY POLITICIANS (RADICALS,
BUENOS 05281 05 OF 05 182209Z
PAGE 03
PERONISTS AND OTHERS). HOWEVER, VIDELA'S OWN GAME PLAN IS BY NO
MEANS CLEAR ON THIS POINT. THE CURRENT POLITICAL LEADERS DO NOT
INSPIRE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN IMILITARY RANKS AND VIDELA MAY BE FORCED
TO STRETCH OUT HIS REORGANIZATION SCENARIO. SERIOUS ECONOMIC AND
POLITICAL PROBLEMS COULD INTERRUPT THE MILITARY CYCLE AS THEY
HAVE THE OTHER ARGENTINE IMILITARY GOVERNMENTS OF THE RECENT
PAST, REQUIRING A HASTY TRANSFER OF POWER ONCE AGAIN TO THE
POLITICIANS. HOWEVER, OUR IMPRESSION IS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
MOOD IN THE ARMED FORCES AT PRESENT IS IN FAVOR OF A LONGER
RATHER THAN A SHORTER GESTATION PERIOD, NOTWITHSTANDING VIDELA'S
RELATIVELY STRONGER POSITION.
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19. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORESEE AT THIS POINT HOW EVEN VIDELA
HIMSELF FORESEES DEVELOPING "THE DIALOGUE" INTO SOME NEW
POLITICAL FORMULATION--AND IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE OUTCOME OF
A PROCESS WHICH INVOLVES THE WILL OF SO MANY DISPARATE GROUPS AND
THE AMBITIONS OF MANY POWERFUL MEN. WE BELIEVE THAT IF VIDELA
CAN, SUCCEED IN PRESENTING HIMSELF AS A MODERATOR DEVOID OF
PERSONAL AMIBITION, HAVING ONLY NATIONAL INTERESTS IN MIND, THEN
A USEFUL "DIALOGUE" CAN BE INITIATED WHICH AT THE LEAST WILL
PROVIDE A CLIMATE IN WHICH CIVILIAN POLITICIANS, MILITARY POWER
SEEKERS AND BROKERS, INSTITUTIONS AND INTEREST GROUPS CAN
EXPRESS THEMSELVES AND EXPECT AT LEAST A RESPECTFUL AUDIENCE.
"DIALOGUE" MAY TURN OUT TO BE NOTHING MORE THAN A USEFUL RUBRIC
TO COVER "POLITICAL VENTILATION"--BUT THIS IS, AFTER ALL A
PROCESS BADLY NEEDED IN ARGENTINA JUST NOW. IF, HOWEVER,
VIDELA CAN CONTROL THE DIALOGUE PROCESS FOR SUFFICIENT TIME,
AND IF HE CAN SUCCEED IN ACCOMMODATING WITHIN THE PROCESS THE
WISDOM OF THE CIVILIAN AND MILITARY ESTABLISHMENTS AS WELL AS
THEIR POLITICAL APPETITES, THEN IT APPEARS POSSIBLE TO US THAT
REAL BASIC CHANGE COULD RESULT.
CHAPLIN
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ARGENTINA PROJECT (S200000W4)
US. DEPT OFSIXTE, A/RPS/IPS
MﾃつｫXﾃつｻﾃつｫt P. GrafekL Director
() Release (V)Exdse { )Dejv
SECTION 1 OF 5 BUENOS AIRES 5281 Excmptionfo):. J/L "f
Ojdassifyr^lnPait ( )InPu]J
^'WfC-OExtendas ^%ﾃつｻn,
^^UnMi.^daieifyoil
INFO
R 181751Z JUL 77
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1383
E.O. 11652: GDS
TAGS: PINS, PINT, SHUM, ELAB, AR
SUBJECT: VIDELA CALLS FOR A POLITICAL DIALOGUE
Re
SUMMARY: PRESIDENT VIDELA'S CALL FOR A NATIONAL DIALOGUE
WITH CIVILIAN POLITICAL SECTORS IS SEEN BY MANY ARGENTINE
POLITICAL OBSERVERS AS A SIGN THAT THE STRUGGLE FOR POWER
BETWEEN DEMOCRATIC AND AUTHORITARIAN TENDENCIES IN THE
ARMY IS BEING WON BY THE MODERATE MILITARY FACTION HEADED
BY VIDELA. THERE IS VIRTUAL UNANIMITY IN THE ARMED FORCES
THAT BASIC INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS ARE NECESSARY IF ARGENTINA
IS TO BREAK ITS SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF MILITARY TAKEOVERS
REQUIRED TO UNDO THE CHAOS LEFT BY WEAK AND INEFFECTUAL
CIVILIAN GOVERNMENTS. HOWEVER, THE ISSUES CURRENTLY DIVIDING
THE ARMY APPEAR TO INCLUDE THE PERIOD OF TIME NECESSARY TO
PREPARE THE GROUND FOR A RETURN TO STABLE" CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT,
THE POLITICAL GROUP OR GROUPS WITH WHOM THE MILITARY
SHOULD "DIALOGUE" CONCERNING THE FUTURE, AND THE STRUCTURE OR SHAPE
WHICH THE FUTURE CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE IN
ORDER TO ASSURE THE STABILITY DESIRED. THE VIDELA-VILOA FORCES
APPEAR TO FAVOR NEGOTIATIONS WITH TRADITIONAL PERONIST AND
RADICAL PARTY POLITICIANS AND A SHORTER TRANSITION PERIOD,
WHEREAS AUTHORITARIAN AND RIGHTWING MILITARY MEN SEEM TO BE
THINKING IN TERMS OF A MORE RADICAL REFORM OF THE POLITICAL
>ﾃつ｣*
/
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"SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD REQUIRE MORE TIME. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
ROUGH CORRELATION BETWEEN THE DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES
IN THAT THE MODERATES FAVORING A POLITICAL DIALOGUE TEND TO BE
MORE SENSITIVE TO THE HUMAN RIGHTS PROBLEM (AT LEAST FROM THE
PUBLIC RELATIONS STANDPOINT), WHEREAS THE AUTHORITARIANS TEND TO
BE MORE HARDLINE ON BOTH ISSUES. HOWEVER, THIS IS AN OVERSIMPLI-
FICATION. TRADITIONAL INSTITUTIONAL RIVALRIES WITHIN THE ARMED
FORCES AND PERSONAL AMBITIONS OFTEN SUPERSEDE THE IDEOLOGICAL
OR POLICY DIFFERENCES AND CONFUSE THE ISSUES. DESPITE VIDELA'S
RECENT GAINS IN THE ARMY, HE IS A LONG WAY FROM WINNING THE
STRUGGLE. THE DIALOGUE HAS NOT YET BEEN FORMALLY APPROVED IN
THE ARMY AND MOREOVER THE ARMY HARDLINERS APPEAR TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT WITHIN THE NAVY AND THE AIR FORCE. THE
LATTER TWO SERVICES ARE PUTTING PRESSURE ON VIDELA TO RELINQUISH
HIS COMMAND OF THE ARMY AND STEP DOWN FROM THE JUNTA WHILE
REMAINING AS PRESIDENT, I.E. TO BECOME THE -FOURTH MAN." AN
IMPORTANT INDICATOR OF THE OUTCOME OF THE IMMEDIATE
STRUGGLE IS WHETHER VIDELA WILL BE ABLE TO
RETIRE EXTREME HARDLINE GENERALS WHO OPPOSE HIS PLANS.
THIS PAPER IS AN INITIAL ATTEMPT TO GET AT THE ISSUES INVOLVED
IN "THE DIALOGUE" AND THE CONCLUSIONS CONTAINED HEREIN SHOULD BE
REGARDED AS TENTATIVE. END SUMMARY.
1. THE UNLEASHING OF THE GRAIVER AND THE ALUAR SCANDALS BY
RIGHTWING MILITARY HARDLINERS IN APRIL AND MAY HAS PROVEN TO REP-
RESENT NO MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION IN PRESIDENT
VIDELA'S ATTEMPT TO CONSOLIDATE HIS POSITION WITHIN THE MILITARY
REGIME AND USE THIS POSITION TO BRING ABOUT THE POLITICAL REFORMS
HE IS SEEKING. VIDELA WON MAJOR GAINS DURING THE MEETING OF ARMY
GENERALS IN FEBRUARY AND, AS THE COUP MARKED ITS FIRST ANNIVERSARY
IN MARCH, THE GOVERNMENT APPEARED TO OBTAIN A NEW DEGREE OF
STABILITY. THEN CAME THE CHALLENGE FROM PROVINCIAL GOVERNOR
SAINT JEAN (PREVIOUSLY RUMORED AS AN ASPIRANT TO THE "4TH MAN"
BUENOS 05281 01 OF 05 1821232
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POSITION) IN THE FORM OF THE GRAIVER-ALUAR CRISES. HAVING
DISSIPATED THE MOST FRIGHTENING ASPECTS OF THESE POLITICAL STORM
CLOUDS (BY REMANDING THE ISSUES INVOLVED TO THE CIVIL AND
MILITARY JUDICIAL SYSTEMS), VIDELA RECOVERED SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TO MAKE A FRESH START TOWARD INITIATING THE PROCESS
OF POLITICAL REFORM.
2. IN HIS ARMY DAY SPEECH OF MAY 2 9 VIDELA ANNOUNCED THAT PLANS
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WERE UNDERWAY TO INSTITUTIONALIZE A "WIDE AND GENEROUS DIALOGUE"
WITH ALL SECTORS OF PUBLIC OPINION "EXCEPT THE CORRUPT AND
SUBVERSIVES." SUCH A CIVIL-MILITARY DIALOGUE, SAID VIDELA,
WOULD PREVENT THE ARMED FORCES, IN THE SOLITUDE OF THEIR POWER,
FROM FALLING INTO ELITIST OR CORPORATIVIST HABITS; THE END
OBJECTIVE WAS TO BUILD "AN EFFICIENT AND STABLE DEMOCRACY."
THERE WAS ANOTHER EQUALLY IMPORTANT DIMENSION TO THE SPEECH:
HIS CALL TO BEGIN "WINNING THE PEACE" AFTER THE WAR AGAINST
SUBVERSION WAS WON CARRIED WITH IT THE IMPLICIT PROMISE OF
GREATER OBSERVANCE OF LEGALITY AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE FUTURE.
3. VIDELA THEN REPAIRED TO A KEY MEETING OF ARMY GENERALS
MAY 31-JUNE 1, IN WHICH IT IS SAID THAT ALL THE GENERALS PRESENT,
EXCEPT TWO, ACCEPTED HIS PROPOSAL TO.INCLUDE POLITICIANS IN THE
DIALOGUE. ACCORDING TO A CASA ROSADA SOURCE, IT WAS AGREED
THAT DETAILED PLANS FOR A NATIONAL DIALOGUE WOULD BE DRAWN UP
AND PRESENTED AT THE NEXT REGULAR MEETING OF ALL THE GENERALS
SCHEDULED FOR AUGUST. AMONG THE DETAILS PENDING CLARIFICATION
ARE THE AGENDA TO BE DISCUSSED, WITH WHOM, WITH WHAT OBJECTIVE
AND OVER WHAT PERIOD. REPORTEDLY, THOSE HIGH RANKING OFFICERS
WHO CANNOT ACCEPT THE PRESIDENT'S PLAN FOR A POLITICAL DIALOGUE
WILL BE EXPECTED TO RESIGN--OR THEY WILL BE RETIRED. FOR THIS
PURPOSE, ARMY PROMOTION AND ASSIGNMENT PANELS WILL MEET EARLIER
THIS YEAR. (FOLLOWING THE GENERALS' CONCLAVE RUMORS
BEGAN CIRCULATING THAT ARMY I CORPS COMMANDER GENERAL SUAREZ
MASON, A PRINCIPAL HARDLINER, WOULD BE REASSIGNED OR RETIRED
AT THE END OF THE YEAR AND THAT SAINT JEAN WOULD BE REMOVED
FROM THE BUENOS AIRES GOVERNORSHIP).
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fm amembassy buenos aires
to secstate washdc 1384
Ejection 2 of 5 buenos aires 5281
4. in an apparently separate endeavor in early june, planning
minister (gen.) diaz bessone presented to the junta a draft
introduction to a "national project" or plan for overhauling
the nation's political institutions and preparing the way for a
new constitutional republic. although our palace source viewed
"diaz bessone's draft as a separate initiative intended to upstage
the president, the preliminary working paper subsequently was
examined extensively at various levels of the national
government and the armed forces and presumably will provide the
frame of reference for "the dialogue" with civilian sectors
whenever one gets formally underway. indeed, videla's recent
speeches have been interpreted in the press as meaning that
government reorganization plans are now conceived as resting on
two pillars--the national project and the dialogue. however, it
is apparent that there are important differences between the two
PLANS.
5. PARALLELING THE PLANS FOR A "NATIONAL DIALOGUE," IT IS ALSO
RELEVANT TO NOTE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GREATER RECOGNITION OF
THE HUMAN RIGHTS PROBLEM IN VIDELA'S PUBLIC PRONOUNCEMENTS OVER
THE PAST TWO MONTHS. AS THE WAR AGAINST SUBVERSION WINDS DOWN,
VIDELA HAS BEEN QUOTED AS SAYING, THE ABUSES WILL ALSO
DISAPPEAR. IN AN ATTEMPT TO AVERT A NEGATIVE U.S. VOTE IN THE
WORLD BANK, GOVERNMENT REPRESENTATIVES APPEARED TO BECOME MORE
PAGE 02 BUENOS 05281 02 OF 05 182134Z
RESPONSIVE TO OUR DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVES. ON THE LABOR FRONT
THERE ALSO HAS BEEN AN ALBEIT BRIEF CONTRIBUTION TO THE DIALOGUE
AS THE GOVERNMENT CONSULTED A GROUP OF HANDPICKED LABOR LEADERS
CONCERNING THE GUIDELINES FOR A NEW TRADE UNION LAW RECENTLY
APPROVED IN PRINCIPLE BY THE JUNTA.
6. VIDELA'S RECENT INITIATIVES HAVE PRODUCED A FLURRY OF QUASI-
POLITICAL ACTIVITY AROUND THE COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT, EVERY CONTACT
BETWEEN A LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL AND A CITIZENS GROUP, EVERY
PRONOUNCEMENT BY A PRESSURE GROUP WAS SEEN AS PART OF THE NEW
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ﾃつｦDIALOGUE, THANKS IN PART TO THE MORNING DAILY "LA OPINION"
WHICH, INTERVENED BY MODERATE (SOMETIMES ALSO REFERRED TO AS
"POPULIST") MILITARY AUTHORITIES ANSWERABLE TO ARMY CHIEF OF
STATE VIOLA, UNDERTOOK THE TASK UNOFFICIALLY--AND PERHAPS
PREMATURELY--OF PROPAGATING THE NEW PHILOSOPHY. DESPITE THE
BAN ON POLITICAL PARTY ACTIVITY, UCRP LEADERS ISSUED A STATEMENT
CRITICIZING VARIOUS ASPECTS OF GOVERNMENT POLICY; PERONISTS
ANNOUNCED THE OPENING OF A STUDY CENTER; A CONSERVATIVE STUDY
AND ACTION GROUP CALLED "SEA" RELEASED A DOCUMENT SETTING FORTH
ITS OBJECTIVES; CONSERVATIVE MINIPARTIES ANNOUNCED AN ATTEMPT
AT'UNIFICATION; AND A NEW SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC SPLINTER GROUP CAME
INTO BEING. RESPONDING TO THE GENERALLY FREER AIR,"SOME 3,000
PERONISTS ALSO STAGED A BRIEF STREET DEMONSTRATION ON THE
ANNIVERSARY OF PERON'S DEATH BEFORE BEING DISPERSED BY POLICE.
ON THE LABOR FRONT THE TRADE UNION COMMITTEE CONSULTED BY THE
GOVERNMENT WITH RESPECT TO A NEW UNION LAW STATED ITS PREFERENCE
FOR RETAINING THE PERONIST LABOR LEGISLATION. THE INTERVENED
AUTO WORKERS AND LIGHT AND POWER WORKERS UNIONS ALSO ISSUED
STATEMENTS COMDEMNING THE GOVERNMENT'S LABOR POLICIES.
7. AS TO BE EXPECTED, THE VIDELA ADMINISTRATION VIEWED SOME OF
THESE DEVELOPMENTS AS GOING TOO FAR TOO FAST AND IT REACTED WITH
IRRITATION. THE RADICAL PARTY STATEMENT PUBLISHED TWO
BUENOS 05281 02 OF 05 182134Z
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AFTER THE MEETING OF THE ARMY GENERALS WAS PARTICULARLY UPSETTING
FOR THE GOVERNMENT NOT ONLY BECAUSE OF ITS TRONG CRITICISM OF
HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES AND MARTINEZ DE HOZ' ECONOMIC POLICY BUT
ALSO DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE DOCUMENT'S-"RELEASE. VIDELA AIDES
WERE FEARFUL IT WOULD ALARM THE HARDLINE GENERALS AND STRENGTHEN
THEIR RESOLVE TO RESIST THE PRESIDENT'S PLANS. ACCORDING TO OUR
PALACE SOURCE, THE PRESIDENT HAD A CAREFULLY DELINEATED GAME
PLAN FOR BRINING THE ARMED FORCES AROUND TO HIS POINT OF VIEW.
HE COULD NOT HAVE WON THE GENERALS' APPROVAL OF A POLITICAL
DIALOGUE IN FEBRUARY, FOR EXAMPLE. THE RADICAL STATEMENT COULD
HAVE UNDONE VIDELA'S SCENARIO, IT WAS ARGUED. IN ORDER TO CALM
THE GENERALS, VIDELA AGAIN RESORTED TO THE COURT SYSTEM TO
DETERMINE WHETHER THE BAN ON POLITICAL ACTIVITY HAD BEEN VIOLATED.
HOWEVER, BY SELECTING A FEDERAL JUDGE OF KNOWN "DEMOCRATIC
PERSUASION,n IT WAS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION THAT THE CASE AGAINST
THE RADICALS WOULD DIE A NATURAL DEATH. (INDEED, A NOT-GUILTY
VERDICT WAS HANDED DOWN A WEEK AGO, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ELEMENTS
IN THE GOVERNMENT WHICH STILL APPEAR DETERMINED TO CONTEST THE
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DECISION AND THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR IN FACT FILED AN APPEAL.)
8. IF THE GOVERNMENT HAD REASON TO BE DISPLEASED WITH THE
CRITICAL TONE OF THE COMMENTS FROM TRADITIONAL POLITICAL PARTY
AND TRADE UNION QUARTERS WHICH VIDELA'S CALL FOR A DIALOGUE HAD
EVOKED, THE CREATIVE IMAGINATION OF AUTHORITARIAN OR CENTER-
RIGHT CIVILIAN ELEMENTS WAS NO LESS DISTRUBING. IN HIS N.Y.
STATEMENT, EX-JUSTICE MINISTER AND "SEA" FOUNDING MEMBER JAIME
PERIAUX NOT ONLY PREDICTED THAT THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT WOULD
LAST 10 TO 12 YEAR. HE RESURRECTED THE "4TH MAN" THESIS BY
REPORTEDLY ANNOUNCING THAT VIDELA PLANNED TO REMAIN AS PRESIDENT,
ALTHOUGH STEPPING DOWN FROM THE JUNTA AND RETIRING FROM THE
ARMY IN 1979. VIDELA WOULD DO BETTER, SUGGESTED PERRIAUX, IF HE
ALSO GAVE UP THE PRESIDENCY IN 1979 AND HELD HIMSELF "IN RESERVE"
SO THAT HE COULD LAUNCH HIS CANDIDACY AS THE FIRST CIVILIAN
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PRESIDENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD OF MILITARY RULE. PERRIAUX
WAS IMMEDIATELY POUNCED ON BY OLD-LINE POLITICANS FOR HINTING
THAT THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD SEEK TO INCORPORATE ALL CENTER AND
CENTER-RIGHT OPINION IN A SINGLE OFFICIAL PARTY TO FILL A ROLE
SIMILAR TO THAT PLAYED BY THE PRI IN MEXICO. THIS IDEA HAD
FIRST BEEN INTRODUCED BY "CARTA POLITICA'S" MARIANO GRONDONA
BACK IN APRIL WHEN HE SUGGESTED THE CREATION OF A NATIONAL
REORGANIZATION MOVEMENT ("MRN") WHICH, AS ONE ASTUTE POLITICAL
OBSERVER CALLED IT, WAS NOT INTENDED "TO-WIN ELECTIONS FIRST
AND THEN GOVERN BUT TO GOVERN FIRST AND WIN ELECTIONS AFTERWARDS.
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'9. GRONDONA'S THESIS WAS DEVELOPED FURTHER IN THE JUNE 23
ISSUE OF THE FORTNIGHTLY MAGAZINE "CONVICCION," WHICH ALSO
CONTAINED A DETAILED PLAN FOR GRADUALLY PREPARING THE COUNTRY
FOR CIVILIAN RULE OVER THE NEXT 13 YEARS. BECAUSE THIS IS THE
MOST ELABORATE STATEMENT OF AUTHORITARIAN (BUT NOT NECESSARILY
ANTI-VIDELA) THINKING ABOUT THE POLITICAL FUTURE WHICH HAS
APPEARED TO DATE, IT DESERVES SUMMARIZATION HERE. (SOME SAY IT
WAS INSPIRED BY THE NAVY, HOWEVER, SEE HAB 8586 FOR THE OUTLINE
OF A PLAN PREPARED BY AUTHORITARIAN GEN. OLIVERA ROVERE, THE
ARMY'S SECREATRY GENERAL, WHICH BEARS SOME RESEMBLANCE.) THE
"CONVICCION" ARTICLE FORESEES A FIVE-STAGE SCENARIO AS FOLLOWS:
(A) 1976-1979. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST STAGE,
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CHARACTERIZED AS ONE OF "MILITARY ABSOLUTISM," THE CURRENT
GOVERNING STRUCTURE REMAINS IN FORCE, I.E. NO CHANGE IN THE
MILITARY JUNTA OR THE PRESIDENCY. TOWARDS THE END OF 1978 THE
NUCLEUS OF THE MRN IS TO BE FORMED.
(B) 1979-1982, A NEW MILITARY JUNTA IS TO BE INSTALLED IN
1979, BUT VIDELA REMAINS AS PRESIDENT, I.E. AS "THE 4TH MAN."
ADMIRAL MASSERA DND GENERAL AGOSTI, ALREADY RETIRED, , BECOME
LEADERS IN THE MRN. SOME PARTICIPATION OF CIVILIAN ELEMENTS
TO BE ALLOWED IN THE GOVERNMENT, PRESUMABLY SELECTED FROM THE
MRN.
(C) 1982-1985. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTALLATION OF A NEW
JUNTA IN 1982, VIDELA MUST STEP DOWN FOR ANOTHER MILITARY MAN
FROM THE MRN LEADERSHIP WHO WILL BE PRESIDENT UNTIL 1988. THE
PROVINCIAL GOVERNORS WOULD ALSO HAVE TO COME FROM THE MILITARY,
(D) 1985-1988. THE JUNTA CHANGES AGAIN, BUT THE PRESIDENT
SELECTED IN 1982 REMAINS, HIS PRINCIPAL TASK BEING TO ORGANIZE
A REFERENDUM (TO TAKE PLACE IN 1986) REGARDING THE
INSTITUTIONALIZATION PROCESS. MAYORS AND CITY COUNCILMEN WOULD
BE ELECTED IN 1987 AND PROVINCIAL LEGISLATORS IN 198 8 FROM
LISTS DRAWN UP REPRESENTING VARIOUS CURRENTS OF OPINION WITHIN
THE MRN.
(E) 1988-1991. ANOTHER JUNTA IS INSTALLED, HOPEFULLY THE
LAST IN THE REORGANIZATION PROCESS. THE NEW PRESIDENT WOULD
COME FROM THE MRN, BUT HE COULD BE A CIVILIAN. IN 1989 THE MRN
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WOULD BE DISSOLVED TO ALLOW ITS MEMBERS TO REGROUP IN ONE OR
MORE NEW POLITICAL PARTIES. POSSIBLY, IT WOULD BE SPLIT INTO
TWO, LIKE AN AMOEBA, TO FORM THE START OF A TWO-PARTY SYSTEM.
ELECTIONS FOR MEMBERS TO THE NATIONAL CONGRESS WOULD BE HELD IN
1990. BY 1991, THE AUTHORS OF THIS POLITICAL SCENARIO HOPE THE
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MILITARY WILL HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WITHDRAW QUITELY AND SLOWLY TO
THE SIDELINES, LEAVING THE CIVILIANS PRESUMABLY FREE TO CALL
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND TO RUN THE NEW GOVERNMENT ON THEIR
OWN.
10. AT HIS PRESS CONFERENCE IN MONTEVIDEO JUNE 24 VIDELA
APPEARED TO BE REACTING NOT ONLY THE THE TRIAL BALLOONS LAUNCHED
FROM AUTHORITARIAN QUARTERS, BUT ALSO TO BE RETREATING FROM THE
EXCESSIVE EXPECTATIONS AROUNDES IN PERONIST AND RADICAL POLITICAL
SECTORS BY HIS CALL FOR DIALOGUE. SAID VIDELA, THE PURPOSE OF
THE PROPOSED DIALOGUE WITH CIVILIAN REPRESENTATIVES WAS TO
ENRICH THE IDEAS OF THE ARMED FORCES AS THEY-WORKED TOWARD THE
COMMON OBJECTIVE OF BUILDING A "STRONG, STABLE AND MODERN
DEMOCRACY." A "CIVILIAN-MILITARY CONVERGENCE," HOWEVER, DID NOT
MEAN THAT THE ARMED FORCES SHOULD FATHER THEIR OWN POLITICAL
PARTY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE DIALOGUE EXCLUDED NOT
ONLY SUBVERSIVES, ECONOMIC DELINQUENTS AND THE CORRUPT, BUT
ALSO "THOSE WHO EXCLUDED THEMSELVES BECAUSE THEY DO NOT SHARE
OUR IDEAS." HE GRUDGINGLY ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE PROPOSED
DIALOGUE COULD BE CALLED "A POLITICAL OPENING," BUT NOT IN AN
ELECTORAL SENSE. "WE ARE FAR FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF ELECTIONS,
WHETHER MUNICIPAL, PROVINCIAL OR NATIONAL"" HE SAID. IN
RESPONSE TO A QUESTION, VIDELA DISCLAIMED CURRENT CONSIDERATION
OF A "4TH MAN" THESIS, SEEING NO NEED TO CHANGE THE EXISTING
POWER STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, HE HEDGED, SHOULD CIRCUMSTANCES
DURING THE REORGANIZATION PROCESS SO REQUIRE, HE WOULD NOT
RULE OUT NEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING A 4TH MAN IDEA.
11. THERE HAVE BEEN OTHER INCIDENTS OF STATEMENTS ON THE
RECORD WHICH FURTHER SUGGEST THE PARAMETERS OF, OR CONSTRAINTS
ON, VIDELA'S CALL FOR DIALOGUE:
-- IT IS RUMORED IN POLITICAL CIRCLES THAT AT A RECENT MEETING
OF SENIOR ARMY OFFICERS ARCH-HARDLINER GENERAL SANTIAGO OMAR
RIVEROS OPENLY CHALLENGED PRESIDENT VIDELA'S PLANS, ONLY TO BE
ARGUED DOWN BY III CORPS COMMANDER GENERAL MENENDEZ, A
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HARDLINER WHO REPORTEDLY HAS MOVED INTO VIDELA'S CAMP. THESE
REPORTS DO NOT MAKE CLEAR AT WHICH RECENT MEETING THE ALLEGED
ENCOUNTER TOOK PLACE, BUT SEE HAB-8606 FOR A DETAILED REPORT
OF AN INCIDENT AT A MEETING OF THE ARMY HIGH COMMAND ON JUNE 3 0
WHICH SOUNDS AS IF IT MAY BE THE SAME EVENT. (MENENDEZ,
INCIDENTALLY, IS INCREASINGLY BEING TOUTED AS A SWINGMAN AND
POTENTIAL ARBITER WITHIN THE ARMY.)
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-- THE DECISION TO OFFICIALLY HEADQUARTER THE MILITARY JUNTA
AT THE NATIONAL CONGRESS BUILDING LENDS THE IMPRESSION OF
UPGRADING THE JUNTA VIS-A-VIS THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY. IT
PARALLELED' A RECENT DECREE PLACING LIMITS ON THE AMOUNT OF TIME
THE EXECUTIVE POWER COULD HOLD UP LEGISLATION PROPOSED BY THE
JUNTA'S LEGISLATIVE ADVISORY COMMISSION (CAL).
-- THE APPOINTMENT OF A PROTEGE OF PERRIAUX, DR. JUAN JOSE
CATALAN, AS MINISTER OF EDUCATION AND CULTURE, GAVE THE IMPRESSION,
PERHAPS ERRONEOUSLY, THAT VIDELA HAD MADE A CONCESSION TO THE
CONSERVATIVE "SEA" GROUP.
--ON THE SAME DAY THAT VIDELA ADMITTED IN MONTEVIDEO THAT THE
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ﾃつｦDIALOGUE COULD BE INTERPRETED AS A LIMITED "POLITICAL OPENING,"
INTERIOR MINISTER HARGUINDEGUY EXPRESSLY REJECTED THIS
DEFINITION.
-- TWO WEEKS AGO THE ARMY ISSUED A COMMUNIQUE CALLING FOR
THE AGING POLITICAL PARTY CHIEFS AND THE LEADERS OF OTHER KEY
SECTORS OF SOCIETY TO TURN OVER THEIR LEADERSHIP POSTS TO A
YOUNGER GENERATION AS A CONTRIBUTION TO THE NATIONAL
REORGANIZATION PROCESS.
DESPITE VIDELA'S DISAVOWAL OF THE "4TH MAN" THESIS, RUMORS
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CONTINUE THAT HE MAY STEP DOWN FROM THE JUNTA EARLY NEXT YEAR,
BUT REMAIN IN THE PRESIDENCY. CURIOUSLY, SOME SEE THIS AS A SIGN
OF VIDELA'S GROWING STRENGTH AND THE ASCENDANCE OF THE MODERATE
POSITION IN THE ARMY. ACCORDING TO THE OPTIMISTIC VERSION, VIOLA
WOULD REPLACE VIDELA IN THE JUNTA AS COMMANDER OF THE ARMY.
HOWEVER, WE DOUBT THAT VIDELA WILLINGLY WOULD PERMIT HIMSELF TO
BE SEVERED FROM THE UMBILICAL CORD WHICH TIES HIM TO THE ARMY
COMMAND STRUCTURE WHEN THE MOST LIKELY CONSEQUENCE WOULD BE
HAVING SUCH OPPOSING POLITICAL FIGURES AS "POPULIST" VIOLA AS
ARMY COMMANDER AND JUNTA MEMBER ON THE ONE HAND AND EITHER
HARDLINER SUAREZ MASON OR SUPPOSEDLY EX-HARDLINER MENENDEZ AS
ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF ON THE OTHER. SEE PARAGRAPH 17 BELOW.)
12. THERE HAVE BEEN OTHER INCIDENTS OR MILESTONES MARKING MORE
CLEARCUT POSITIVE GAINS FOR THE VIDELA-VIOLA FORCES IN RECENT
WEEKS: THE APPEALS COURT DECISION RELEASING EX-PRESIDENT
LANUSSE AND FORMER AIDES FROM PREVENTIVE DETENTION (PORBABLY
QUASHING THE CHARGES AGAINST LANUSSE IN THE ALUAR CASE FOR
GOOD}; GOVERNOR SAINT JEAN'S TELLTALE PROTESTATIONS OF HIS
DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN CONVICITIONS TO THE "NEW YORK TIMES";
THE JUDICIAL DECISION ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE MATTER OF THE
UCRP STATEMENT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STIMULATE RENEWED
POLITICAL DEBATE; AND ADMIRAL MASSERA'S SPEECH A WEEK AGO
DECLARING THAT DEMOCRACY WAS BEING REBUILT "EVEN FOR THOSE WHO
TORE DEMOCRACY TO SHREDS."
13. ON BALANCE, WE BELIEVE THAT THE MODERATES OF "POPULISTS"
HAVE MADE IMPORTANT GAINS IN THE ARMY OVER THE PAST MONTH OR SO,
AND THAT THIS WILL ADVANCE THE CHANCES OF THE "DIALOGUE" VIDELA
SEEKS. THE END OBJECTIVE APPEARS TO BE THE CONSTRUCTION OF A
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FEDERALIST, REPUBLICAN AND PLURALIST DEMOCRACY TAILORED TO MEET
THE DISTINCTIVE CHALLENGES OF THE ARGENTINE POLITICAL CULTURE--
PERHAPS THROUGH SOME ADMISSION OF "CORPORATIST" PRINCIPLES. BUT
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OUST WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF VIDELA'S PROPOSED DIALOGUE AND
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS? FIRST OF ALL, IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED
THAT ACCORDING TO ITS OWN PROPONENTS "THE DIALOGUE" HAS NOT YET
FORMALLY BUGEN. IN ORDER FOR THE ARMED FORCES OFFICIALLY TO
APPROVE THE DIALOGUE, THEY MUST FIRST HAVE A CLEARLY DEFINED
POLITICAL REORGANIZATION SCHEME ABOUT WHICH THEY CAN "DIALOGUE"
WITH CIVILIAN SECTORS. OUR READING OF HAB 8597 SUGGESTS THAT
THE ARMY HAS NOT YET DECIDED WHAT FORM THE GOVERNMENT'S
STRUCTURE SHOULD TAKE IN THE MEDIUM TERM, LET ALONE WHAT THE
NEXT CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD LOOK LIKE. THE DRAFT
"NATIONAL PROJECT" WILL NOT BE READY UNTIL NEXT YEAR--IF THEN.
SECONDLY, EVEN ASSUMING THAT VIDELA IS DISPOSED TO INCLUDE
SOME OF THE OLD TIME POLITICIANS IN HIS PROPOSED DIALOGUE
ABOUT THE FUTURE, WE SERIOUSLY DOUBT HE WOULD RESERVE A
PRINCIPAL PLACE IN THE FUTURE CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT HE IS
PLANNING FOR POLITICAL FIGURES INTIMATELY CONNECTED WITH THE
POLITICAL DISASTERS OF THE RECENT PAST.
14. WE TEND TO VIEW VIDELA'S CALL FOR DIALOGUE PRINCIPALLY AS
A PSYCHOLOGICAL DEVICE INTENDED TO CONVINCE THE
ARMED FORCES TO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF PLANNING THE BASES FOR
FUTURE CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT. AFTER ALL, A DILAOGUE OF
SORTS HAS BEEN GOING ON BETWEEN CIVILIANS AND THE MILITARY SINCE
THE COUP--ACTUALLY SINCE BEFORE THE COUP." HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE
THE ALL-IMPORTANT DIALOGUE OF THE FUTURE, I.E. THE NEGOTIATIONS
WITH THE CIVILIAN GROUP EVENTUALLY TO TAKE OVER FROM THE MILITARY
IS A LONG WAY FROM BEING APPROVED BY THE JUNTA, NOTWITHSTANDING
THE FACT THAT THERE ARE RADICALS AND PERONISTS SALIVATING IN THE
WINGS WHO THINK THEY WILL BE INVITED TO JOIN THE CABINET OR
OTHER HIGH LEVEL POSTS AS EARLY AS NEXT YEAR.
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15. THERE COULD BE NEW SETBACKS FOR THE MODERATES' TIMETABLE.
BETWEEN NOW AND THE NEXT MEETING OF ALL THE ARMY GENERALS
SCHEDULED FOR AUGUST, THE HARDLINE GENERALS COULD STRIKE BACK
AGAIN AND THE VIDELA "DIALOGUE" PUT IN THE TRASH BASKET. HAB-
8 606 SUGGESTS THAT VIDELA-VIOLA GROUP HAD CONSIDERABLY ROUGHER
GOING IN THE HIGH COMMAND ("ALTOS MANDOS") MEETING OF JUNE 30
THAN IN THE GENERALS' MEETING A MONTH BEFORE. THE SUPPORT OF
THE GENERALS WHO ARE MEMBERS OF THE 76TH GRADUATION CLASS OF THE
MILITARY ACADEMY IS WHAT APPEARS TO GIVE VIDELA HIS
DECISIVE EDGE IN THE MEETINGS OF GENERALS AS OPPOSED TO THOSE
OF THE HIGH COMMAND.
16. A KEY CONSTRAINT ON THE DIALOGUE IN THE LABOR SECTOR IS
WHETHER MARTINEZ DE HOZ' BECOMINC POLICY WILL PROVE SUCCESSFUL.
UNTIL THERE ARE GREATHER SIGNS OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY IT DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY THAT HE WILL FAVOR COLLECTIVE BARGAINING, LET ALONE
THE RIGHT TO STRIKE, IF HE HAS ANY SAY IN THE MATTER. MOREOVER,
OUTBREAKS OF LABOR OR SOCIAL UNREST COULD PRODUCE DEMANDS FOR
RENEWED AUTHORITARIAN MEASURES. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY CRUCIAL AND
LARGELY UNKNOWN VARIABLE FOR THE MEDIUM TERM COULD BE THE NEW
GENERATION OF YOUNG MILITARY OFFICERS WHO HAVE BORNE THE BRUNT
OF THE COUNTERINSURGENCY AND WHO PRESUMABLY HAVE AN INTEREST IN
PREVENTING FUTURE CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENTS FROM EXAMINING THE
COUNTERTERRORIST METHODS USED TO WIN THE WAR. WHETHER THIS
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ELEMENT WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL ROLE IN THE FUTURE IS
STILL UNCLEAR, BUT SOME OBSERVERS FEAR THAT THERE ARE t?
NATIONALIST AUTHORITARIAN IDEAS STIRRING IN THIS GROUP, j_
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17 DESPITE VIDELA'S RECENT GAINS, THERE IS AN ACCOMMODATION
PROCESS AT WORK WITHIN THE ARMED FORCES AND HE PROBABLY WILL
HAVE TO COMPROMISE SOME ON HIS PROGRAM IN ORDER TO
GAIN THE FULL ACQUIESCENCE OF THE MILITARY. NOT THAT WE
SEE HIM WILLINGLY ACCEPTING THE "4TH MAN" THESIS BEFORE 1979
WHEN, BY STATUTE, HE MUST GIVE UP HIS POSITION AS ARMY COMMANDER
ANYWAY. UNLESS THERE IS MORE LOGIC AND DYNAMISM BEHIND THE
PRESSURE FROM ARMY HARDLINERS AND THE OTHER TWO SERVICES FOR NOT
ALLOWING VIDELA TO WEAR HIS JUNTA AND PRESIDENTIAL HATS
SIMULTANEOUSLY THAN PRESENTLY MEETS THE EYE, WE ARE SKEPTICAL
THAT HE IS ABOUT ,TO CONCEDE ON THIS POINT--ESPECIALLY WHEN HIS
POSITION OF STRENGTH WITHIN THE ARMY APPEARS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE. THE AUTHORITARIAN POLITICAL THINKERS HAVE MADE A
CONTRIBUTION TO THE DEBATE (OR DIALOGUE), BY PLACING A 13-YEAR
OUTSIDE LIMIT ON MILITARY RULE. VIDELA PUBLICLY STILL REFUSES
TO BE DRAWN INTO A CONVERSATION OF TIMETABLES, BUT PRESUMABLY
HIS SCENARIO CALLS FOR A SHORTER TRANSITION PERIOD. (CURIOUSLY,
ADMIRAL MASSERA ALSO MAY BE THINKING IN TERMS OF A RELATIVELY.
BRIEFER REORGANIZATION PROCESS (5-6 YEARS WAS THE GUESS OF ONE
OF HIS AIDES), BUT THIS IS PRESUMABLY BECAUSE OF MASSERA'S OWN
PERSONAL POLITICAL AMBITIONS.)
18. ANOTHER APPARENT DISTINCTION IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
CONSERVATIVE/AUTHORITARIAN POLITICAL THINKERS TEND TOWARDS A
BRAZILIAN-LIKE POLITICAL SOLUTION WITH ARTIFICIALLY STRUCTURED
GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION PARTIES, WHEREAS VIDELA'S CIVILIAN
AIDES CARTER MORE TO THE TRADITIONAL PARTY POLITICIANS (RADICALS,
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PERONISTS AND OTHERS). HOWEVER, VIDELA'S OWN GAME PLAN IS BY NO
MEANS CLEAR ON THIS POINT. THE CURRENT POLITICAL LEADERS DO NOT
INSPIRE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN IMILITARY RANKS AND VIDELA MAY BE FORCED
TO STRETCH OUT HIS REORGANIZATION SCENARIO. SERIOUS ECONOMIC AND
POLITICAL PROBLEMS COULD INTERRUPT THE MILITARY CYCLE AS THEY
HAVE THE OTHER ARGENTINE IMILITARY GOVERNMENTS OF THE RECENT
PAST, REQUIRING A HASTY TRANSFER OF POWER ONCE AGAIN TO THE
POLITICIANS. HOWEVER, OUR IMPRESSION IS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
MOOD IN THE ARMED FORCES AT PRESENT IS IN FAVOR OF A LONGER
RATHER THAN A SHORTER GESTATION PERIOD, NOTWITHSTANDING VIDELA'S
RELATIVELY STRONGER POSITION.
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19. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORESEE AT THIS POINT HOW EVEN VIDELA
HIMSELF FORESEES DEVELOPING "THE DIALOGUE" INTO SOME NEW
POLITICAL FORMULATION--AND IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE OUTCOME OF
A PROCESS WHICH INVOLVES THE WILL OF SO MANY DISPARATE GROUPS AND
THE AMBITIONS OF MANY POWERFUL MEN. WE BELIEVE THAT IF VIDELA
CAN, SUCCEED IN PRESENTING HIMSELF AS A MODERATOR DEVOID OF
PERSONAL AMIBITION, HAVING ONLY NATIONAL INTERESTS IN MIND, THEN
A USEFUL "DIALOGUE" CAN BE INITIATED WHICH AT THE LEAST WILL
PROVIDE A CLIMATE IN WHICH CIVILIAN POLITICIANS, MILITARY POWER
SEEKERS AND BROKERS, INSTITUTIONS AND INTEREST GROUPS CAN
EXPRESS THEMSELVES AND EXPECT AT LEAST A RESPECTFUL AUDIENCE.
"DIALOGUE" MAY TURN OUT TO BE NOTHING MORE THAN A USEFUL RUBRIC
TO COVER "POLITICAL VENTILATION"--BUT THIS IS, AFTER ALL A
PROCESS BADLY NEEDED IN ARGENTINA JUST NOW. IF, HOWEVER,
VIDELA CAN CONTROL THE DIALOGUE PROCESS FOR SUFFICIENT TIME,
AND IF HE CAN SUCCEED IN ACCOMMODATING WITHIN THE PROCESS THE
WISDOM OF THE CIVILIAN AND MILITARY ESTABLISHMENTS AS WELL AS
THEIR POLITICAL APPETITES, THEN IT APPEARS POSSIBLE TO US THAT
REAL BASIC CHANGE COULD RESULT.
CHAPLIN
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